2013年已经过去，中国铁路总公司(下称铁总)将呈上一份预亏报表。

　　“虽然2013年铁道部的资产负债表和利润表目前还没有出来，但是从各个局反映的情况来看，亏损是一定的了，而且还不在小数。”1月14日，接近铁总的的一位消息人士向21世纪经济报道记者透露。

　　盈亏平衡“玄机”

　　在9日召开的铁总工作会议上，铁总总经理盛光祖给出了如下一组数据，2013年，铁总多元化经营总收入完成10426亿元，同比增长7%，其中运输总收入完成6051.2亿元，同比增长14%，全面实现了盈亏平衡。

　　但是，在私下里，铁总的一位副总向底下的部分铁路局长透露了如下消息：铁总实现盈亏平衡，这种平衡是勉勉强强、千万百计、十分困难的一种平衡。

　　消息人士称，实际上，铁总2013年是巨亏的，之所以最后还能“盈亏平衡”，是国家财政给了铁总一笔巨额补贴，才把盈亏的账做“好看”了，因为铁总每年在公益性铁路运营、粮食军事物质等公益性运输上会有损失，所以每年国家财政都会有一笔不菲的补贴给它，但这种补贴最终却不会在铁总的报表上出现。

　　这也解释了以下的一些财务怪现象，即每年铁总三季度的报表都是亏损的，但一到年末，却能实现微薄的盈利。例如2012年第三季度末，铁总税后利润是-85.41亿元，到了年终，却转亏为营，实现利润1.96亿元，2013年三季度末，铁总的税后利润是-17.31亿元，到年末，却全面实现了盈亏平衡。

　　北交大运输学院一位教授表示，2013年铁路货运的总体形势是非常严峻的，同比没有实现增长，如果考虑到GDP和通货膨胀因素，实际就是负增长，四季度的货运量相比前三季度也未见突破性增长，因此财报数据年底突然好转其缘由只能是国家财政补贴。

　　地方路局借债度日

　　铁总的亏损也可从各铁路局全靠借债度日窥见一斑。消息人士称，呼和浩特局跟银行借了29个亿才能勉强维持现金流。2013年全年，呼局超亏了34亿。而呼局在全国18个路局中还算是日子比较好过的，因为它管内有大量的煤炭等资源，又有多条货运线路，是所有路局中油水最大的几个路局之一。“连呼局都是如此，其他路局可想而知。”

　　事实上，2013年仅有太原铁路局等少数几个路局财务报表还算不难看，其他路局几乎全部亏损。

　　而更稀奇的是，铁路系统出现了运得越多，业务量越大，反而越亏损的怪现状。而背后的原因，消息人士表示，一是近几年来物价涨得太厉害，材料费、人工费、设备维修费等都在涨，尽管铁路的运价也是每年一涨，但跟不上其他因素的涨幅。

　　另一原因，则是铁路内部不合理的清算体系和管理体制所致。消息人士称，有时候，一车货物，发往100公里外和发往1000公里外，铁路局可能拿到的是同样的钱，在空车使用费上，也是如此，路程远近的因素没有完全考虑进去。

　　路局亏损的最重要的一个因素则是管内的合资公司高铁亏损严重。消息人士称，在全国铁路会议上，好多位铁路局局长都称自己被合资公司害惨了，例如郑州铁路局2012年本来是盈利了4个亿的，但因为管内的郑西高铁亏损了14个亿，结果报表一合并，它就亏损了10个亿。

　　不仅铁路局，各工程局也资金吃紧。“铁路工程很多都是工程局垫付材料款和工程款，铁道部在资金紧张时拨付资金很慢，造成大量拖欠，工程局为使项目继续运转，只能向银行贷款，一些工程局负债率已经在80%-90%左右。”中铁隧道集团公司副总工王梦恕介绍说。

　　铁路系统亏损严重，与其突发猛进的建设进度和以债务性资金为主的筹资方式有关。2013年三季度财报显示，截至当期总累计的长期借款达24838亿元，总负债30642亿元的77.74%。巨量的借款导致铁道部每年需要为此付出可观的利息，财报显示，截至2013年三季度铁总用于还本付息的资金达1193亿元，其中利息即达283亿元。

　　这种大举借债和大额投资在未来数年内还将继续。盛光祖在铁总工作会议上宣布，2014年铁路投资将达6300亿元，而在今明两年以及“十三五”时期，铁路投资和建设还将处于高位运行。这些资金将主要依靠银行贷款和发行债券解决。届时，铁总的负债率或将继续上升。　　孙春芳

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